April CPI put the Fed in a cleaner trap than the policy language wants to admit. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has headline CPI up 0.6 percent in April and 3.8 percent over the year, with energy rising 17.9 percent from a year earlier. John Williams then describes the labor market as hard data stable, soft data weakening, and inflation pushed by tariffs plus energy.

That is the dangerous middle state. The central bank can call it uncertainty, but prices are already forcing a hierarchy of mandates. A low-hire, low-fire labor market gives no heroic recession signal, while fuel, shelter, food, and imported goods keep invading household accounts. Rate cuts become a political wish attached to the calendar. The data are making the calendar look ridiculous.